This fall and winter I was lucky enough to be a small part of an increasingly sizable contingent of conservationists who have tried to elevate global warming to Tier One status in the Presidential race.  Seldom did we come away from a campaign event, rally or town hall meeting without a global warming question having been posed from the floor or, failing that, asked along the rope line.  Often, the question came up spontaneously, not having been asked by members of our team at all.  Our “stop global warming” signs, stickers and supporters were omnipresent and appear to have made a difference.  As the Presidential candidates head now to Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida, here are ten parting reflections on what I think may have occurred in New Hampshire. 

1.    Cast then count.  Cantankerous New Hampshirites indulge in a quaint habit of actually casting their ballots before counting them.  TV anchors, however, love to count the ballots before they’re cast.  In NH, Gallup, Rasmussen, Zogby, Pew and the media who feed on their stats forgot that polls are snapshots of a specific time and place, not crystal balls.  Gee, did the public get sucker-punched into upside-down expectations about the Hillary Barack outcome.  Proclaiming “hey, this is OUR Primary, not yours (media),”Granite Staters did what they did, giving Clinton a three point win.

2.    Response rate.  A corollary of Ogden Nash’s “if called by a panther, don’t anther”: if called by a pollster, ask em how many hang-ups or ‘no-responses’ they got before they got you.  I’m told the raw “response rate” in the NH polling was weak, the number of undecideds was huge and persisted right into the voting booth, and the leaners were just that: “leaning, not settled”.  Another, vaguely related, curiosity: if pollsters know that cellphones have replaced landlines for a significant number of voters, how come they still don’t acknowledge a cell phone factor in their margin of error caveat?

3.    We don’t make things worse. The 63 % turnout (of registered voters) shattered the 2000 record.  In spite of that, I met several people who didn’t vote in the Primary because they just couldn’t decide whom to pick. This had never occurred to me.  These voters were so conscientious! They said the Primary was too truncated, too compressed this year.  A few didn’t want to do damage by casting an irresponsible, unthoughtful vote.  The selection was almost too juicy.  All assured me they’d vote Nov 4th.  Fascinating.

4.    Toast.  Beware, too, the glib prognosticator.  How well I recall FOX news’ gleeful obituary for John McCain in mid-summer as McCain, out of money, fired his top advisors.  “Stick a fork in him; he’s done,” crowed FOX.  Well, McCain done well: finished first by 6 % in NH, pretty good for someone who was well done dead meat in July.

5.    Apogee?  Normally, I subscribe to the adage “trend is you friend” in politics.  Momentum is huge for a rising candidate like Obama leaving Iowa.  But at some point momentum peaks, then stalls.  Hillary’s do-or-die get-out-her-vote juggernaut (abetted by balmy weather and the Shaheen machine), apparently had a momentum of its own, equal to or greater than Obama’s.  Why is Hillary so perennially underestimated?  A lot of women to cast a “shame on you” vote to rebuke male contenders and a media that appeared to be ‘piling on’ in celebrating Hillary’s predicted demise.

6.    Double Digits.  The media in asserting to attentive NH that Obama could win by double digits, became a player not a reporter.  At all the Dem events I attended, people feasted on their bounty of available picks.  They were genuinely torn.  They liked em all.  So when it looked liked Obama might have a big surplus, some of those votes may have strayed to Hillary to be sure an Obama win wouldn’t be interpreted as a humiliating repudiation of the Clintons.  Similarly, some independents, originally expected to add to Obama’s surge may have chosen to help McCain in what was perceived to be an even closer Republican contest.  Obama’s predicted coronation fell victim.  There may have been animosity among the combatants, but for the most part, there wasn’t antipathy among their supporters.  Look for that to change as the field winnows and the race gets more complicated.

7.    Laundromat.  One of the sweetest stories I heard came from an Edwards staffer who was gladdened to find John’s retired millworker parents at the Portsmouth Hilton’s front desk early one morning trading dollars for quarters.  They insisted on doing their own laundry before embarking on another 18 hour day bolstering their ardent, albeit wealthy, son.

8.    Stamina.  I was repeatedly amazed as I witnessed the freshness and resilience of virtually all aspirants.  They were always “on”.  No down time.  Little sleep.  Day after grueling day, they acted as if each event was their first, not the tenth, of the day.  And they’ve been doing this for months straight.

9.    Foreign press.  I never attended a rally or town meeting where there wasn’t a phalanx of awestruck foreign correspondents or a European TV crew.  The intense, retail aspect of NH’s every-voter-matters is a phenomenon. Warts and all, it’s envied around the world.

10.     Heart.  I was shameless in asking literally everyone I encountered if they’d voted yet, what their top issue was, and if they wanted to recommend anyone.  The answers I got were almost invariably cheerful and respectful.  Mostly, voters demurred on either revealing their choice of trying to influence mine.  A toll collector counseled “Just do what your heart tells you to do.”  I conclude there was a lot less “strategic” voting going on, and an awful lot of people just following their heart.  What a privilege to see New Hampshire up close exercise our birthright with such enthusiasm, good will and deliberation.  Bravo democracy.  Bravo New Hampshire.  But I hear South Carolina is a different matter.

Well, the circus has finally left town and New Hampshire can go back to normal. If downpours on January 9 is normal, that is...

Yesterday NH Voters surprised the country - not only by reviving their 2 favorite campaigns (I am assuming by now you all know who won ; ), but also by showing the country and the world that they want a President who understands the climate crisis facing us and has a plan to do something about it. At his final rally on Monday night in Concord, McCain actually took one of our signs out of a volunteer's hand and held it up when he passionately said "and we're going to stop global warming!" Quite a positive sign that someone seeking the Republican nomination would so boldly and visibly make this promise.

So today the election moves on, but I have no doubt that New Hampshire has had a significant impact on what is to come. The candidates are talking about global warming, the media is talking about it, and I am hopeful that it will continue to be a part of the debate as we move on to Super-duper Tuesday and beyond.

...and the polls will close in New Hampshire. Eric Orff and I spent the day on Elm Street in Manchester, holding global warming signs and talking to media, campaign supporters, and tons of people who are just here to take it all in!

And certainly there was plenty to take in. Our crew managed to build snowmen on many busy street corners of Manchester, including the big one pictured here in front of the Radisson where most of the media is headquartered. It was the perfect magnet, sparking conversations with countless reporters and passersby. The posted pictures will hopefully give you flavor of all the craziness here in Manchester! 

Eric was reminiscing about his time on Elm Street in the 60s, when the 60s were "cool". Eric grew up in Londonderry, not 10 miles from here. He remembers when he first got his license and cruised Elm Street to be cool - not at all like today where temperatures flirted with the 60s and melting snowmen lined the street (thanks to us, of course!) Back in the 60s Elm Street was cool in January, but today temperature records were expected to be broken all across the state. And it is not just the temperatures heating up the streets of New Hampshire, this state is red hot with talk of politics and heated debates over what kind of leader this country needs.

You can feel the intensity increasing as the workday ends and more New Hampshire voters head to the polls and out to the streets to join the ranks of campaign supporters that are wildly cheering for their favorite. In just a few hours we'll see who wins over the guy pictured here - with perhaps the most relevant sign on the street today!

Energy Smart points us to a Time article called The eight keys to New Hampshire.  The article lists global warming as one of the eight keys.  As Energy Smart points out, none of the other "keys" are actually issues. 

Nostalgia; Independent Voters; The Union Leader; Fire Marshals; Huckabee’s New England Appeal; The Ron Paul Effect; Romney’s Rebranding; and, Global Warming.

Time:

It may be Al Gore's ultimate political triumph: climate change as a key election issue. Everywhere they go throughout the state, candidates from both parties field questions about global warming from voters who are looking for more than just platitudes. They want to hear about cap-and-trade, carbon tax, hybrid cars, and woe to the candidate who tries to side-step the issue. Last spring, 180 out of 234 townships in the state passed a resolution asking the federal government to address climate change. That could result in some raised temperatures for Republicans who are still getting used to the idea that global warming might be real.

Let's hope that global warming turns out to be a bigger factor than nostalgia or fire marshals, when the votes are counted tonight.

Today's the day. I think everyone - campaign staff and voters alike - are ready for the NH madness to be over. 

I am in Manchester today - media central - and the streets are gridlocked. It is pretty much like what it looks like on TV  - just louder (you gotta love the Ron Paul army - they have actually shut down the main street thru Manchester on more than one occasion) and warmer! Not sure why the DC media folks need to be quite so bundled up - it's almost 60 degrees here! The locals would be in flip flops if the sidewalks weren't rivers of melting snow. Great day to talk to people about global warming.

The streets are crawling with media interviewing undecided voters and campaign supporters looking to change just one more person's mind. The Carbon Coalition - including staff from NWF, LCV, & the Granite State Conservation Voters Alliance and many volunteers - is working the streets as well, placing signs around the various media headquarters and trying to get our message into stories about this primary that is being so closely watched around the country ... and the world. I have been interviewed by the Italian and Danish press, as have many of my colleagues! It is quite interesting to see how many international media outlets are here. They are really trying to get a handle on what goes on in the minds of American voters when picking a President. Aren't we all...

For now, it is just one big waiting game. It's a great day for voting, so if nothing else I hope that New Hamsphire shows the world that Americans value our right to vote by GOING TO THE POLLS!

Let the games continue...

It is getting increasingly interesting to see just what the candidates will do to secure every last vote. I just left a very energetic crowd at the Elks Lodge in Dover, where John Edwards spoke for about a half hour. The crowd remained excited after waiting nearly 2 hours for the guest of honor to speak - but we were not bored. The Edwards campaign has quite an entourage, and we were treated to speeches by none other than actors James Denton (from Desperate Housewives - I confess I didn't know who he was either ; ) and Tim Robbins (I knew him!). Susan Sarandon was also there for good measure, but unfortunately she didn't speak. 

When Edwards took the stage, the crowd was raging. He clearly has a solid, loyal following here in New Hampshire. I found myself next to an undecided voter who had recently started to lean heavily toward Obama. After hearing Edwards' passionate words, specifically how he will take back the country for the middle class and kick the special interests out of Washington, it looks like he has won her vote. Amazing what a great speech and a couple celebrities will do!

Despite the multitude of "Friends of the Earth Action Support Edwards" signs around the hall in the hands of children (and of course my "Stop Global Warming" sign), Edwards never mentioned climate change or the environment in his speech.

Earlier today, Eric Orff attended a Romney event in Salem where about 350 people gathered in another NH Elks Lodge to hear how former MA Governor will "change Washington". Apparently that is the theme of Romney's stump speeches these days, and it appears that all the candidates - from both parties - are offering change. Given the state of affairs in the country these days, that seems a good thing. The promise of change is far and away the loudest message NH voters are hearing, but the difference seems to be how, or if, each candidate can actually effect change.

Romney actually spoke about energy independence in his speech, but surprisingly John McCain - the most outspoken advocate for action on global warming on the Republican side - did not. I attended a brief rally in Exeter on the steps of the town hall this afternoon - and the message was all about the war on terror. McCain was running really late (another consistent theme of the day!) and again I found myself waiting for the candidate to arrive among a - mostly - patient crowd. While chatting with those around me, I think I uncovered the truly bizarre NH voter we all hear about. Standing next to me was a middle-aged undecided man, and I asked him who he was leaning toward - and why. He said quite confidently, "I'm probably going to vote for Romney, but I'm considering Obama." Yes, you read that correctly. So naturally I asked "what are you looking for in a candidate, because those 2 are pretty different!" He said "they are both brilliant, and I am tired of having a President who can't put a sentence together that makes any sense at all." So there you have it.

Tomorrow, the voters of NH will tell the rest of the country who they think should be President. And who knows if it will be issues, smarts, hamburgers, or celebrities that influences their decisions. Time will tell, and there's not much time left! Candidates are attending events well into the evening tonight (I think Edwards' last event starts at midnight) so they are using every last second they have to convince people that they should be the next President.

On to tomorrow...

The candidates have one more day to win over NH voters, and they are surely giving it all they've got!

I just left a crowded Hillary rally in Dover, where about 500 people filled a community center (apparently over a hundred people were shut out, as is happening at both Clinton and Obama events across the state). Boy did Hillary come out swinging! She clearly understands that Obama is gaining momentum here, having already bypassed her in local polls by a sizable margin. She railed against his record on change, talked about the importance of experience in this unstable world, and again used the term "false hope" to undermine his message. This drew lots of cheers from the older voters in the audience, but clearly turned off the youth who were already thin in numbers to begin with. This was a stark contrast to the Obama events I have attended, and more and more it appears that the younger vote is going to make a significant difference in this election. If they actually show up to vote tomorrow, that is. It is supposed to be 50 degrees, though, so all voters are going to have to wade through what is sure to be a deluge of melting snow!!

The Republicans are also doing their part to persuade undecided voters. Eric Orff (pictured here!) attended a lunch in Concord with Huckabee and Chuck Norris - or "Chuckabee" as the NHites are fondly calling the pair - where they were providing free "Huckaburgers" to attendees (hmmm - Chuckaburgers?!). According to a very colorful cell message report, when Eric told the Governor that he was an Independent, undecided voter, Huckabee practically "sat on his lap and served him a burger personally!!"

The candidates on both sides are clearly using every trick in the book - from free food to all out attacks on their opponents - to win over NH voters. With just one day to go, who knows what they'll pull out of their hats!

On to events for Romney, McCain, and Edwards - at least - this afternoon...

I crossed into NH today from Mass on a rag-tag meandering secondary road.  I knew immediately exactly when I'd hit pay dirt.  I was jolted at the otherwise unannounced border by an assault, a visual barrage of Hillary, Mitt, and Rudy lawn signs stuck in every median snowbank.   An orgy of patriotic red, white and blue.  I expected Born in the USA Bruce Springsteen to personally jump out of my hybrid car stereo to tell me I'd arrived.

Three out of four winters, NH hardly has a pulse in January.  Everyone's either trying to ice fish or cuddle with a wood stove.  This year "Live Free or Die" Land is throbbing palpably.  The state is about to blow its cerebral cortex picking the next President.

I just came from something billed as an Obama "Derry Stand for Change Rally".  I expected big, and it was: 2,500 waited ... and waited.  Obama, mobbed everywhere now, arrived in the Pinkerton Academy gym in the southeastern NH sprawl of Derry an hour and a half late.

"Change" is all the rage now.  I was there for Climate Change.  The Global Warming mafia got more stickers on more unsuspectings than all the AARPers, Single Payers and STOP THE WARriors combined.  Derry toddler Connor Santora clutching his dad Franc's hand is proof.

What I found most surprising about the Obama rally (having attended a bunch all fall for pretty much everybody running), was that when he asked the question "Who's still deciding (on who you're gonna vote for Tues)?" easily, 40%, maybe 1,000 people (of every age, stripe and ethnicity) raised their hands.  I was astounded.  Granite Staters take their "front-porch-candidate-testing" wicked seriously.  No one's gonna stampede New Hampshire into doing anything they don't decide to do for themselves.  Attendees I met were there to listen, learn and kick the tires.  Way to be, democracy! I was lucky enough to have my son Sam agree to allow us to use his head for multiple messaging: Boston Red Sox logo and Stop Global Warming pin on his cap.  Note Barack Obama on stage in background.

NH Secretary of State Bill Gardiner sez this is the weekend New Hampshirites settle and decide.  But this year is more volatile and compressed (on both the R and D side) than anything I've ever witnessed.  Stay tuned.  Bill predicts Iowa-like huge turnout.  I plan to attend a John McCain "Mac is Back" rally in Hanover at noon Monday to see if Global Warming comes up as an issue, and how McCain, now the alleged NH frontrunner, addresses it as he woos the base.

This on the ground update is courtesy of NWF's Don Hooper.

New Hampshire is buzzing!

The intensity of the presidential campaign in NH has definitely gone up several notches! For the last 2 days my colleagues and I have been traveling around the state - attending candidate events, talking to voters and press, etc - and the energy on all sides is astounding. One thing is for sure, there are still a TON of undecided voters out there and over the next 2 days the people of New Hampshire will continue to grapple with their decision.

The Iowa Caucus clearly caught many of the candidates’ supporters by surprise, and while the winners are working hard to ride the wave of momentum, the others are tirelessly attempting to create a very different outcome here in New Hampshire.

My colleague Eric Orff attended Hillary’s “welcome back to NH” event very early on Friday morning, and the energy in the large hanger was vibrant, positive, and enthusiastic – clearly there are droves of Hillary supporters desperately hoping that what “happened in Iowa will stay in Iowa.”

Throughout the weekend, large, energized have gathered to see Obama, Clinton, McCain and Edwards. Giuliani and Richardson have not been so fortunate, at least from the handful of events we were able to attend (not a scientific analysis by any means!). We plan to get to see many more candidates before Tuesday, so I'll report more when I can.

This morning I went to an Obama rally at a high school in Exeter, and the excitement is palpable. Both the candidate and his supporters can taste victory, you can feel it. In addition to his other key issues (war, health care, education), Obama spoke eloquently and passionately about his intention to take on the oil companies and the need for clean energy development in this country. This drew big cheers from the crowd, especially when he talked about the potential for job creation thru a new green economy.

Of all the events we have attended thus far, without a doubt the most inspiring for me was a rally we organized outside the Manchester debate last night. Well over 100 people donned global warming shirts, signs, buttons, and costumes (I’m not kidding, there were 2 polar bears, a snowman, Santa, and even a CFL lightbulb!!) and rallied outside the debate site. We outnumbered all the campaigns! People of all ages (including a bus of 30 that came up from New Bedford, MA to join us) cheered and chanted various “STOP GLOBAL WARMING” messages in front of the circus of media and campaign staff that filtered by. Cool stuff. Maybe NH Public Radio was onto something today when they called energy policy one of the "hip issues of this year's primary"!!

After the rally, we all gathered in a bar in Manchester to watch the debate and our crowd multiplied to over 200. The room erupted into cheers when McCain brought up global warming (of course that was quickly silenced when he mentioned nuclear), and of course again when Al Gore got his shoutout during the Democrats debate. Clearly this issue is on many voters' minds in NH, and fact that it is consistently among the important issues each “would be” President mentions is encouraging.

My apologies for this lengthy post, but it is amazing just how much happens in 1 day in New Hampshire right now! Over the next 2 days, my colleagues and I will attempt to provide a snapshot of all the craziness thru this blog. One thing is clear to me – the voters of New Hampshire are still making up their minds, and may well remain undecided right up until they pull the levers.

Exciting stuff! Stay tuned.

Like the rest of the media and politarazzi, I'm heading out of Iowa with no real idea when or if I'll be back.  It's been fascinating and fun.  I've enjoyed seeing the rise and fall of candidates, and the slow but steady rise of global warming as an issue.

I should probably have some profound final words, but the best I can muster is that final words don't seem appropriate because, despite nearly a year of campaigning leading up to the caucus, Iowa is really a beginning.  Now is the start of the Election Year.  Now is the start of the campaign season.  We have our front runners and our long shots, but we don't have our candidates and we don't have our next president.  So take heart, you political junkies, we have a fun year ahead.  Stay tuned for my colleagues, Catherine Bowes and Don Hooper, blogging live from New Hampshire, starting this weekend.